Buyback Radar
Company reports

Cannibal Stocks, commissioned research

One company.
Read to the bone.

A 15 to 20 page deep dive on a single stock, written by Sandro Marinkovic, the author of Cannibal Stocks. Every number traced to a filing. The questions management would rather not answer, answered.

Request a deep diveWhat is inside
Buyback RadarEquity research

Case study

Dillard’s, Inc.

NYSE: DDS · Department stores · Little Rock, Arkansas

74 million shares. Then 15. Then a $30 dividend.

85%of the shares retired since 1999
13.5×earnings per share, fiscal 2010 to 2025
23×the stock, from about $28
Sandro Marinkovic
Cannibal StocksIndependent research
18 pages · October 2026
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

Contents

  1. 1The share count since 19993
  2. 2What the buyback cost5
  3. 3Business and moat6
  4. 4Capital allocation record8
  5. 5Ownership and float9
  6. 6Balance sheet stress test11
  7. 7Price against value12
  8. 8Management, read from the filings14
  9. 9The bear case15
  10. 10What has to be true17
  11. 11Sources, every number linked18
Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.2
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

1. The share count since 1999

Dillard’s has retired 85.4% of its shares since its peak. It bought back stock every year for about fifteen years.

a quarter gone 2005half gone 2011three quarters gone 2018107M shares, 199916M200020052010201520202025

In fiscal 2010 and 2011 alone the company retired about 26 million shares for roughly $905 million, about $35 a share. That is more shares than exist today.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.3
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

2. What the buyback cost

Fiscal 2010Fiscal 2025Change
Revenue$6.12B$6.47B+6%
Net income$180M$570M3.2×
Shares outstanding74M15.6M÷4.7
Diluted EPS$2.67$36.4213.5×

Profit tripled. The share count fell 4.7 times. Three times 4.7 is 13.5. The report separates the part that came from the business from the part that came from the buyback, and asks which can continue.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.5
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

3. Business and moat

271department stores in 30 states
248owned outright, not leased
40%of public shares held by the employee plan

The moat is not the brand. It is the real estate. A retailer that owns its buildings does not negotiate with landlords in a bad year.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.6
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

5. Ownership and float

The family holds a share class that elects two thirds of the board. The employee retirement plan holds about 40% of the public shares. What is left is the float the market actually trades.

5.89%of Class A disclosed by Ted Weschler, October 2020
+27%the stock, the day that filing became public
2 of 3analysts covering the stock rate it Sell
Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.9
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

7. Price against value

At the old 74 million shares, today’s profit would be about $8.50 a share, roughly a $150 stock at today’s multiple. The share count is the valuation.

18×earnings, at the time of writing
3 yrsof falling earnings per share
$30special dividend instead of buying stock near $600

A reverse DCF asks what the price already assumes, instead of guessing what the business will earn.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.12
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

9. The bear case

February 2025, stock at $467. A published short thesis set a $160 target, 65% downside, on peers at 5 times EBITDA against 7 for Dillard’s. The stock later touched $730.

The report takes the strongest argument against the company seriously, then tests it line by line against the filings. A bear case that survives is the most valuable page in the file.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.15
Buyback RadarDillard’s (DDS) · Deep dive · Sample

10. What has to be true

  1. The family keeps choosing buybacks over dividends when the stock is cheap
  2. Owned real estate keeps costs below leased competitors in a weak year
  3. The employee plan does not become a seller
  4. Earnings per share stop falling
  5. The $30 special dividend was the exception, not the new policy

Five things to watch, each with the filing that will show it first.

Sample page. Figures from SEC filings and the published Cannibal Stocks analysis.17

Sample pages from the Dillard’s file. Flip through.

What is inside.

Eleven sections, the same order every time, so one file compares with the next.

  1. 01
    The share count since 1999Every 10-K, split adjusted, every number linked to the filing
  2. 02
    What the buyback costCash spent against shares that actually disappeared
  3. 03
    Business and moatWhat protects the cash flow, and what does not
  4. 04
    Capital allocation recordBuybacks, dividends, debt and deals, judged by the price paid
  5. 05
    Ownership and floatWho holds it, who sells, what is really tradeable
  6. 06
    Balance sheet stress testWhat a bad year does to the buyback
  7. 07
    Price against valueA reverse DCF: what today’s price already assumes
  8. 08
    Management, read from the filingsPay, buys, sells, promises kept and broken
  9. 09
    The bear caseThe strongest argument against, taken seriously
  10. 10
    What has to be trueThe five things to watch, with the filing that shows each first
  11. 11
    SourcesEvery figure traced to a document you can open
25years of share counts, split adjusted, every 10-K linked
1question that decides it: can the buyback keep going
0ratings or price targets. Facts and judgement, not a sales pitch

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How it works.

  1. RequestTell us the company and what you want to know. Two minutes, below.
  2. ScopeA reply within two working days with the outline, the price and the date.
  3. ResearchThree to four weeks inside the filings, calls and transcripts.
  4. DeliveryThe PDF with the source list. Your questions answered by email for 30 days.

Independence, in plain words.

The Radar is never for sale. Rankings are mechanical, read from SEC filings. Nobody can pay to enter or move.

Commissioned means labeled. Every paid study says who paid for it, on the first line.

No conflicts hidden. If Sandro holds the stock, the report says so. Companies he holds are not accepted as clients.

The conclusion is ours. If the numbers say the buyback cannot continue, the report says that too.

Sandro Marinkovic

Request a deep dive.

I read every request myself and reply within two working days, with an outline and a price. If the company is not a fit, I will say so and tell you why.

Sandro Marinkovic

Author of Cannibal Stocks and of How to Invest in Stocks, translated into six languages.

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